ਆਉਣ ਵਾਲੇ ਦਿਨਾਂ ‘ਚ ਦੇਸ਼ ‘ਚ ਕਈ ਥਾਵਾਂ ਤੇ ਬਰਸਾਤ ਦਾ ਦੌਰ ਜਾਰੀ ਰਹਿ ਸਕਦਾ – ਭਾਰਤੀ ਮੌਸਮ ਵਿਭਾਗ ਨੇ ਆਉਂਦੇ ਦਿਨਾਂ ਦੀ ਕੀਤੀ ਭਵਿੱਖਬਾਣੀ – Monthly Outlook for the Temperature and Rainfall during May 2023
ਬੀਤੇ ਕੁਝ ਦਿਨਾਂ ਤੋਂ ਦੇਸ਼ ਦੇ ਕਈ ਹਿੱਸਿਆਂ ਵਿੱਚ ਮੀਂਹ ਪੈ ਰਿਹਾ ਹੈ। ਇਸ ਕਾਰਨ ਲੋਕਾਂ ਨੂੰ ਪੈ ਰਹੀ ਗਰਮੀ ਤੋਂ ਕੁਝ ਰਾਹਤ ਜ਼ਰੂਰ ਮਿਲੀ ਹੈ। ਭਾਰਤੀ ਮੌਸਮ ਵਿਭਾਗ (IMD) ਨੇ ਕਿਹਾ ਕਿ ਉੱਤਰ-ਪੱਛਮੀ ਭਾਰਤ, ਮੱਧ ਭਾਰਤ, ਦੱਖਣੀ ਭਾਰਤ, ਪੂਰਬੀ-ਭਾਰਤ ਅਤੇ ਉੱਤਰ-ਪੂਰਬੀ ਭਾਰਤ ਦੇ ਅਲੱਗ-ਥਲੱਗ ਖੇਤਰਾਂ ਵਿੱਚ ਭਾਰੀ ਮੀਂਹ ਪੈ ਸਕਦਾ ਹੈ। ਉੱਤਰੀ-ਪੱਛਮੀ ਭਾਰਤ, ਮੱਧ, ਪੂਰਬੀ ਅਤੇ ਪੱਛਮੀ ਭਾਰਤ ਦੇ ਅਲੱਗ-ਥਲੱਗ ਖੇਤਰਾਂ ਵਿੱਚ ਗੜੇ ਪੈਣ ਦੀ ਸੰਭਾਵਨਾ ਹੈ।
ਜੇਕਰ ਆਈਐਮਡੀ ਦੀ ਮੰਨੀਏ ਤਾਂ ਮਈ ਵਿੱਚ ਪੰਜਾਬ, ਹਰਿਆਣਾ, ਰਾਜਸਥਾਨ ਅਤੇ ਪੱਛਮੀ ਉੱਤਰ ਪ੍ਰਦੇਸ਼ ਦੇ ਕੁਝ ਹਿੱਸਿਆਂ ਸਮੇਤ ਦੇਸ਼ ਦੇ ਉੱਤਰ-ਪੱਛਮੀ ਅਤੇ ਪੱਛਮੀ-ਕੇਂਦਰੀ ਹਿੱਸਿਆਂ ਵਿੱਚ ਆਮ ਜਾਂ ਆਮ ਤੋਂ ਵੱਧ ਬਾਰਿਸ਼ ਹੋ ਸਕਦੀ ਹੈ। ਇਸ ਤੋਂ ਇਲਾਵਾ ਉੱਤਰ-ਪੂਰਬੀ ਖੇਤਰ, ਕੇਰਲ, ਆਂਧਰਾ ਪ੍ਰਦੇਸ਼ ਅਤੇ ਦੱਖਣੀ ਕਰਨਾਟਕ ਦੇ ਕਈ ਹਿੱਸਿਆਂ ਵਿੱਚ ਆਮ ਨਾਲੋਂ ਘੱਟ ਮੀਂਹ ਪੈਣ ਦੀ ਸੰਭਾਵਨਾ ਹੈ। ਦੱਸਿਆ ਜਾ ਰਿਹਾ ਹੈ ਕਿ ਐਲ ਨੀਨੋ ਜਾਂ ਭੂਮੱਧ ਪ੍ਰਸ਼ਾਂਤ ਮਹਾਸਾਗਰ ਦੇ ਤਪਸ਼ ਦਾ ਅਸਰ ਭਾਰਤ ‘ਚ ਮਾਨਸੂਨ ਦੀ ਬਾਰਸ਼ ‘ਤੇ ਪੈਂਦਾ ਹੈ।
PRESS RELEASE
New Delhi, 28th April 2023
भारत सरकार
Government of India
पृथ्वी विज्ञान मंत्रालय (एम. ओ. ई. एस.)
Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES)
भारत मौसम विज्ञान विभाग
INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT
Monthly Outlook for the Temperature and Rainfall during May 2023
Highlights
Monthly maximum temperatures for May 2023 are expected to be above normal
over east-central and east India and some parts of Northeast and peninsular India.
However, it is likely to be normal to below-normal over the northwest and westcentral India.
Most parts of the country are expected to experience normal to below normal
minimum temperatures except some parts of northwest and east India where
above normal minimum temperatures are likely in some areas.
Above-normal heat wave days are expected over most parts of Bihar, Jharkhand,
Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, east Uttar Pradesh, coastal Andhra Pradesh and
some parts of North Chhattisgarh, east Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and coastal
Gujarat during May 2023
Rainfall averaged over the country in May 2023 is most likely to be normal (91-
109% of LPA). Normal to above-normal rainfall is expected over northwest India,
many parts of west-central India and northern part of Peninsular India. However,
below-normal rainfall is likely in most parts of northeast India, many parts of eastcentral India and south peninsular India.
Monthly Outlook for the Temperature and Rainfall during May 2023
1. Background
Since 2016, the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Ministry of Earth
Sciences (MoES) has been issuing seasonal outlooks for temperatures over the country
for both hot and cold weather seasons. IMD also continuously works to improve the skill
of forecasting models. The current strategy is based on the newly developed MultiModel Ensemble (MME) based forecasting system. The MME approach uses the
coupled global climate models (CGCMs) from different global climate prediction and
research centers including IMD/MoES Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System
(MMCFS) model.
IMD has now released the monthly temperature and rainfall outlook. The outlook
for the temperature in May 2023 is presented in section 2, while section 3 provides the
heatwave outlook for the same month. Additionally, the monthly rainfall outlook for May
2023 is provided in section 4.
2. Monthly Temperature Forecast for May 2023
Fig. 1a and Fig. 1b present the predicted probabilities for the maximum and
minimum temperatures in May 2023, respectively. Monthly maximum temperatures for
May 2023 are expected to be above normal over east-central and east India and some
parts of Northeast and peninsular India. However, it is likely to be normal to belownormal over the northwest and west-central India. (Fig. 1a).
During May 2023, most parts of the country are expected to experience normal to
below normal minimum temperatures except some parts of northwest and east India
where above normal minimum temperatures are likely in some areas. (Fig. 1b).
3. Heatwave outlook for May 2023
The anomaly forecast for the number of heatwave days in the country for May
2023 is presented in Figure 2. Above-normal heat wave days are expected over most
parts of Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, east Uttar Pradesh, coastal
Andhra Pradesh and some parts of North Chhattisgarh, east Madhya Pradesh,
Telangana and coastal Gujarat during May 2023.
4. Monthly Rainfall Forecast for May 2023
The rainfall during May 2023 averaged over the country is most likely to be
normal (91-109% of LPA). The LPA of rainfall over the country during May based on
data of 1971-2020 is about 61.4 mm.
The forecasted spatial distribution of tercile rainfall categories (above normal,
normal, and below normal) over India for May 2023 is shown in Fig. 3. Normal to abovenormal rainfall is expected over northwest India, many parts of west-central India and
northern part of Peninsular India. However, below-normal rainfall is likely in most parts of
northeast India, many parts of east-central India and south peninsular India. The dotted
areas on the map typically receive very little rainfall during May, while the white shaded
areas within the land areas represent the climatological probabilities.
5. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) over the Pacific and the Indian Oceans
Currently, neutral ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) conditions are present over the
equatorial Pacific region. The latest MMCFS (Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting
System) forecast suggests that these neutral conditions are likely to continue in May
2023.
In addition to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions over the Pacific, other
factors such as Indian Ocean SSTs also influence the climate in India. Currently, neutral
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are present over the Indian Ocean. The latest
climate models indicate that positive IOD conditions are likely to develop during the
upcoming season.
6. Extended Range Forecast and short to medium range forecasting services
The IMD also provides extended range forecasts (7-day averaged forecasts for the
next four weeks) of rainfall and maximum and minimum temperatures across the country.
These forecasts are updated every Thursday and are based on the Multi-model ensemble
dynamical Extended Range Forecasting System, which is currently operational at IMD.
The forecasts are available on the IMD website
https://mausam.imd.gov.in/imd_latest/contents/extendedrangeforecast.php).
The extended range forecast is followed by short to medium range forecast
issued daily by IMD.